The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.
Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a
monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a
predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth
and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.
| Metric | xgboost | cnn | naive | lstm | xgboost_custom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mae | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| cor | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.86 | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.87 | 1.01 |
| KGE | 0.81 | 0.78 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| amplitude_mae | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| maximum_difference | 6.20 | 6.31 | 6.29 | 6.30 | 6.00 |
| sign_correlation | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| extreme_correlation | 0.58 | 0.69 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| amount_rainy_hours_mae | 1.55 | 1.55 | 2.23 | 1.69 | 2.62 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| acf_mae | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail
extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at
the same time. We are using quant = .97